The results are mixed.
It’s been nearly 16 weeks since Toy Story 4 opened in theaters, and though the Pixar fourquel is still playing in a handful of second run theaters nationwide, its box office destiny is more or less set in stone, especially with the film now available to rent on demand.
How did Woody and the gang do? As I noted in the weeks following the film’s release, Toy Story 4 fell a bit under expectations for a Pixar sequel when compared to the opening weekends for Finding Dory and Incredibles 2. Nevertheless, it had a strong summer in light of few other animated family films coming out to play.
The results speak for themselves. Toy Story 4 made $1.068 billion worldwide, which is just $2 million higher than Toy Story 3 earned in 2010 (unadjusted for inflation). It’s now the second highest grossing Pixar film of all time behind Incredibles 2.
When you do adjust for inflation, however, the results are murkier. It’s not an exact science but films like Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3 easily breeze past Toy Story 4 despite having smaller releases worldwide.
Domestically, these numbers are similarly salt-graining. Adjusted for inflation, Toy Story 4 (which has made $433.3 million) is only the fifth highest grossing Pixar film in North America behind Toy Story 3, Finding Dory, Finding Nemo, and Incredibles 2 at #1. It’s also worth pointing out that Toy Story 4 wasn’t even the highest grossing animated film of the summer, because The Lion King ended up grossing $1.6 billion (which makes it the highest grossing animated film of all time).
Now this may all seem like silly numbers to parse out. Who cares if Toy Story 4 wasn’t the best box office success of all time? Beyond general curiosity, I find these numbers incredibly important, because they signal a limitation for these Pixar sequels. They’re still successful, don’t get me wrong, but Disney and Pixar have to see what is clear and obvious.
They can’t keep banking on films like Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory to be massive, billion dollar films with more sequels churning out, and the studio has to reaffirm their commitment to original films in the coming years. We already know the studio has seen this coming as an inevitability, because their next four films are, in fact, originals. That fresh intellectual property will prevent Pixar’s roster from growing stale with what feel like cash grabs, even though Toy Story 4 was a well-received film by and large.
But Toy Story 4 feels like the minor dip pointing to a larger trend. Because it didn’t outgross the last major Pixar franchise sequel (with a decade or longer wait in between), Disney and Pixar have no choice but to double down on bolder, richer films based on new stories. The kind that made this studio a trusted, household name in the first place.